Consequently, the first rule is that, although there may not always be a linear correlation, equities market returns are often correlated with the anticipated GDP growth of an economy. Corporate earnings suffer without sustainable or gradually greater economic growth, which eventually makes it difficult for stock prices to rise.
Currently, according to certain projections, our own near-term GDP growth expectation will be about 7 to 7.5 percent. A drop in share values might result from any disappointment. Why was the most recent return from the benchmark BSE Sensex, which is expected to expand the GDP at this rate, negative at -2.25 percent? The BSE Sensex increased by almost 48% the prior year, which is the cause. Additionally, quarterly GDP growth estimates are coming in below projections, and expectations for GDP growth are currently going lower.
Despite this, analysts are optimistic about India’s ability to grow due to strong exports, technological advancements, and consumer demand. The average return you can anticipate from the stock market over the long term is the average nominal GDP growth rate (including the rate of inflation). This corresponds to an annualized return of between 12 and 13 percent (real GDP plus long-term inflation) for India.
Markets will occasionally irrationally favor one external element while disregarding all others for limited periods of time, as was the case in 2000–2001, 2008–2009, and 2020–2021. Equity markets would rise once more as if nothing were wrong, however, because of the excessive amounts of liquidity that were flooding the markets and the gradual reversal of negative causes.
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